The potash sector faced a number of headwinds in 2023, leading to volatility in fertilizer prices for much of the year.
While the market stabilized in the first half of 2024, lower cost inputs for potash production and improved crop production have placed downward pressure on potash prices in the second half of the year.
The World Bank expects fertilizer prices to average lower in 2024 and 2025 compared to 2023, while remaining well above the lows of 2015 to 2019 due to strong demand and supply constraints such as export restrictions from China and sanctions on Belarus, two of the largest potash producing countries.
Signaling a bullish sentiment in the potash market, major potash mining firm BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) is investing billions into new potash production, including US$4.9 billion towards Stage 2 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada. Stage 1 of Jansen is expected to begin production in 2026, and Stage 2, which has also begun construction, is planned to double Jansen’s capacity by the end of the decade.
All of this is welcome news for potash investors — many potash-mining operations have closed in recent years, and some are waiting on the sidelines for better days and improvements in potash prices.
According to the 2024 Mineral Commodity Summary from the US Geological Survey, in 2023, global consumption of potash increased to 37.1 million metric tons (MT), with the top regions for potash consumption being Asia and South America. In 2022, potash consumption totaled 35.7 million MT.
The agency sees world potash production capacity rising to 67.6 million metric tons in 2026, up from 64.3 million MT in 2023. Most of the increase will come from new muriate of potash (MOP) mines and project expansions in Laos and Russia. Past 2026, new MOP mines are expected to come online in Belarus, Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco, Spain and the US.
1. Canada
Potash production: 13 million metric tons; potash reserves: 1.1 billion MT
Leading the list of the top potash countries by production is Canada, which produced 13 million metric tons in 2023. While the nation remained the world’s biggest potash producer, it saw its potash production level fall by nearly 11 percent compared to 2022.
The US Geological Survey attributed this production drop to a dock workers strike in July that blocked potash shipments from the Port of Vancouver in British Columbia, which led some Canadian mines to close temporarily. ‘Production resumed at those mines after the strike was settled in August,’ the agency explained.
Nutrien( TSX:NTR,NYSE:NTR), the world’s largest potash company, is based in the Canadian prairie province of Saskatchewan. It was born from a 2018 merger between two major crop nutrient companies, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan and Agrium. The deal created “a global agricultural giant” now valued at more than US$38 billion. Today, the company has six operating potash facilities in Saskatchewan, Canada.
The world’s largest potash mine, the Mosaic Company’s (NYSE:MOS) Esterhazy K3 operation, is located in Saskatchewan and capable of producing nearly 8 million MT of the fertilizer each year. Additionally, BHP’s aforementioned Jansen potash project will provide a significant increase to the country’s production capacity once it comes online.
2. Russia
Potash production: 6.5 million metric tons; potash reserves: 650 million MT
In 2023, Russia posted 6.5 million metric tons in potash production, down by 300,000 MT from the previous year. This leaves the nation’s potash output down more than 28 percent from the 9.1 million MT achieved in 2021.
Uralkali is Russia’s premier potash company and one of the world’s leading potash producers, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supply pre-war. The company has five mines and seven ore treatment and processing mills.
In response to Russia beginning its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU placed import quotas on potash from Russia, and the US sanctioned specific companies, limiting potash imports. Both the EU and US had eased their restrictions on Russian fertilizer imports in late 2022 in reaction to growing concerns about global food insecurity.
However, Russia had set quotas on fertilizer exports until May 2023 in an effort to protect domestic supply levels, and in September introduced a 7 percent duty for fertilizer products.
3. China
Potash production: 6 million metric tons; potash reserves: 180 million MT
China’s potash production remained flat in 2023 at 6 million metric tons, the same as its 2022 output.
Potash is extremely vital for China — the country is the largest consumer of the fertilizer, accounting for approximately 20 percent of world potash consumption. China’s domestic demand for the material is higher than its homegrown potash supply, making the country reliant on potash imports, especially when it comes to MOP.
The provinces of Xinjiang and Qinghai are home to China’s primary potash deposits, and the Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Company (SZSE:000792) is the country’s largest potash producer.
4. Belarus
Potash production: 3.8 million metric tons; potash reserves: 750 million MT
Potash production in Belarus totaled 3.8 million metric tons in 2023, down by 200,000 MT from its 2022 levels and down 50 percent from 2021 levels. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, output from the Eastern European country had been on an upward trajectory since 2016. Belaruskali is the country’s largest industry operator, with six mines and four processing factories.
Human rights concerns with the Belarusian government led the EU and US to place an array of sanctions on Belarus, including its potash companies, in 2021.
‘In January 2022, the Government of Lithuania, citing national security concerns, cancelled the rail transport contract that allowed the state-run producer in Belarus to ship potash from the port of Klaipeda on the Baltic Sea, its only marine export facility,’ the US Geological Survey states.
Belarus potash production and exports for 2023 were well below the previous year, reports the US Geological Survey, even though the nation began exporting potash by rail to China rather than from ports in Russia.
5. Germany
Potash production: 2.6 million metric tons; potash reserves: 150 million MT
Germany’s potash production came in at around 2.6 million metric tons in 2023. It has fallen slightly in recent years, and was down 100,000 MT from 2022.
The world’s first potash deposits were discovered in Staßfurt in Saxony-Anhalt, now a German state, in 1856, and potash mining began at Staßfurt five years later. Germany was the world’s only potash producer until the beginning of the 20th century.
K+S (ETR:SDF) is one of Germany’s leading potash miners and has a number of projects, operating six mines in three districts in the country. The country is also home to DEUSA International, a private company that ‘mines and markets a number of salt based products,’ including potash fertilizers.
6. Israel
Potash production: 2.4 million metric tons; potash reserves: large*
In 2023, Israel produced 2.4 million metric tons of potash. Annual potash production in Israel has remained in the 2 million to 2.5 million metric ton range since 2017. The country recovers potash from the Dead Sea.
Israel is sixth in terms of global potash output, and also hosts one of the world’s largest potash-producing companies, Israel Chemicals (NYSE:ICL,TLV:ICL). Aside from potash, the company produces roughly a third of the world’s bromine, which is often extracted from the same salt water and brine deposits that produce potash.
The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 created some concerns over potash supply disruptions. However, because demand was lower than it was when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, a similar price shock didn’t hit the potash market.
* As per the US Geological Survey, ‘Israel and Jordan recover potash from the Dead Sea, which contains nearly 2 billion tons of potassium chloride.’
7. Jordan
Potash production: 1.8 million metric tons; potash reserves: large*
Potash production in Jordan increased marginally to 1.8 million metric tons in 2023 from 1.64 million MT the prior year. Arab Potash Company, located in Jordan, is the seventh largest producer of potash by volume and the sole producer of potash in the Arab region. It has helped make Jordan a key potash supplier for India and Asia. Like Israel, Jordan recovers potash from the Dead Sea.
* As per the US Geological Survey, ‘Israel and Jordan recover potash from the Dead Sea, which contains nearly 2 billion tons of potassium chloride.’
8. Laos
Potash production: 1.4 million metric tons; potash reserves: 75 million MT
The Southeast Asian nation of Laos was the eighth largest potash-producing country last year, taking the spot from Chile. Laos produced 1.4 million metric tons of potash in 2023, doubling the previous year’s output of 700,000 MT and a massive leap from the 260,000 MT of potash produced in 2021.
Asia-Potash International Investment (SZSE:000893), one of the largest potassium fertilizer producers in Asia, is at the helm of the country’s potash industry, and is one of the Belt and Road cooperation projects operated by Chinese companies.
Laos is in a great position to increase its potash production in the coming years. Argus reports that in March of 2024, Laos-based potash producer Lao Kaiyuan began construction on its third MOP unit. It is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which will double the company’s current production capacity to 2 million MT per year.
9. Chile
Potash production: 600,000 metric tons; potash reserves: 100 million MT
Chile recorded production of 600,000 metric tons in 2023. Previously a much larger producer, Chile put out 1.2 million MT of potash in 2018, but its production dropped below 1 million MT in 2019 and has slipped further since then.
One of the largest producers of potash in the country is SQM (NYSE:SQM), which is also a leading producer of lithium. South America is one of the world’s largest potash consumers.
10. United States
Potash production: 400,000 metric tons; potash reserves: 220 million MT
In 2023, US potash output totaled 400,000 metric tons, down 30,000 MT from its 2022 level. However, the country managed to hold onto its spot as the 10th largest potash-producing nation. The US has potash reserves of 220 million metric tons.
New Mexico is the source for the majority of US potash production, according to the US Geological Survey. The state is home to two underground mines and one deep-well solution mine. Utah is also a sizeable contributor to the nation’s potash industry, with three operations.
Potassium sulfate or sulfate of potash (SOP) and potassium magnesium sulfate (SOPM) represent about 70 percent of the country’s total potash production, with MOP accounting for the remainder of production.
The country’s most prolific potash producers include Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) and the Mosaic Company. Intrepid, which bills itself as the only producer of MOP in the country, operates an underground mine and a solar evaporation mine in Carlsbad, New Mexico, as well as solar evaporation mines in Wendover and Moab, Utah. Mosaic has an operating potash mine in New Mexico, and the company’s output from that mine and its operations in Saskatchewan, Canada, account for 34 percent of potash production in North America.
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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